BERLIN POLARIZATION MONITOR

Principle Investigators:
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Faas, Dr. Denis Gerstorf, Prof. Dr. Hanna Schwander, Prof. Dr. Jule Specht, Prof. Dr. Céline Teney

Associate researcher:

Dr. Bastian Becker, Luke Shuttleworth

Based on a large longitudinal panel survey that monitors feelings of in-group affinity and out-group aversion, the Berlin Polarization Monitor (BPM) is the key data infrastructure of the Einstein Research Unit ERU-CAP. By focusing on polarization trends across Germany, the BPM fills a critical gap in longitudinal data on affective polarization in multi-party democracies.

Research Questions and Objectives

The Berlin Polarization Monitor captures both the degree and dynamics of affective polarization asking questions such as:

  • How pronounced is affective polarization in Germany and across different social contexts?
  • Under which circumstances do people start translate ingroup affinity and out-group aversion into negative attitudes, emotions and behaviors towards the out-group?
  • How and under what conditions does affective polarization develop and change?

Finding answers to these questions, the BPM facilitates the assessment of various dimensions of affective polarization, particularly in the context of emotionally charged issues – from long-standing debates (e.g. on climate change) to more current topics such as the German parliamentary elections or the war in the Ukraine.

In addition to providing valuable data for academic research, the monitor will regularly communicate its findings to the public, offering an evidence-based foundation for ongoing discussions about public opinion and polarization in Germany.

Specifically, the BPM will focus on three key goals:

Goal 1.: Mapping Polarization Trends

The Berlin Polarization Monitor provides information on the specific dynamics of polarization surrounding political issues and actors, forming the data infrastructure for the Einstein Research Unit. It provides insights into broader societal trends, highlighting topics that may lead to or are already showing signs of affective polarization, along with potential negative impacts and strategies for addressing them.

The Berlin Polarization Monitor offers information on general societal trends in the topics that are at risk to lead to or to already show signs of affective polarization and potentially detrimental consequences thereof. To share the insights from the Berlin Polarization Monitor with the broader public, we collaborate with ZEIT, which visualizes the dynamics and developments of affective polarization based on our data. We provide scientific context and analysis to help interpret these trends.

We are particularly interested in the development of affective polarization over time, particularly in response to political events such as elections or coalition negotiations, examining the role these events play in intensifying polarization. Our team also assesses how rising affective polarization impacts democratic norms, such as tolerance and the rule of law, and the role of personality traits in translating feelings of in-group favoritism and out-group hostility into such attitudinal consequences. Overall, the agenda aims to illuminate the causes, evolution, and consequences of feelings of in-group favoritism and out-group hostility.

Methodological Approach

The Berlin Polarization Monitor employs a unique methodology to examine affective polarization in Germany. Launched in January 2025, it features a large longitudinal panel survey that tracks polarization trends at both the individual and aggregate levels.

Designed to empirically measure in-group affinity, out-group aversion, and related emotions around political issues and political parties, the Monitor covers a wide range of contentious issues – both long-standing debates such as climate change and migration and emerging challenges driven by crises such as the Russian war in Ukraine, the increasing contestation of democracy, or the debt brake.

Our methodological approach ensures a highly robust and comparative dataset, allowing us to track social fragmentations, their psychological and sociological foundations, and their potential behavioral consequences. By conducting monthly assessments, the longitudinal structure enables us to analyze individual-level changes and cross-group differences, offering insights into the evolving nature of affective polarization, its ideological and emotional dimensions, and its potential behavioral consequences.

Research Streams